Many bettors may find it scary or boring to analyse a bet and establish a betting methodology, as they simply see it as entertainment and don’t want to overcomplicate it.
While it is true that analysis and method of betting can be extremely complex, it is actually possible to improve your chances of success if you take into account a few variables, as we will see below. Thus, in this article we will explain how to design your own methodology and what to take into account and what not to take into account.
Taking a football match as an example, we could consider the following variables:
- Ranking
- Home and away results of one team and away results of the other.
- Dynamics of both teams in the last matches.
- H2H. Direct confrontations between them.
- Feelings.
In my opinion, with these variables it is possible to carry out a perfect analysis of a bet, which allows us to establish a methodology without excessive complications, as they are data that can be consulted perfectly in our sports forecasts and that do not take more than 5 minutes, if you want.
In summary, based on this analysis we can conclude that:
- We observe that the Over 1.5 is given in 78% of the cases and the Under 1.5 in 22%.
- The Over 2.5 occurs in 45% of the matches, while the Under 2.5 occurs in 55%.
Home teams above 10th position and with a difference to the visitor of less than 5 places have a probability for the Over 1.5 always above 80%.
Conclusions obtained from the betting analysis
Thus, by applying these principles, we can elaborate a totally suitable methodology that, in many cases, will substantially increase our percentage of success in the sports forecasts we make.
However, it is important to remember that sports betting is not an exact science and because it is based on numbers, there is an important factor of chance, which is provided by the sporting event in question, in our case football. Therefore, no matter how meticulous and complete the analysis is, 100% accuracy is never guaranteed.
Our example of betting analysis (prediction over 1.5 goal 80%)
As an example, let’s take a look at the case presented by user Juan Manuel.
- Sport: Football
- Sample: 90 matches
Data obtained:
- 0 goals have been scored in 7% of the matches, the probability of this happening could not be found, since there are few data available and the result would not be reliable.
- Only 1 goal has been scored in 15% of the matches and the probability of this occurring is higher if the home team is no higher than 12th in the standings and the difference to the away team is no more than 7 places.
- 2 goals have been scored in 33% of the matches and the probability of occurrence is higher if the home team is in 10th position and the difference to the away team is no more than 6 places.
- 3 or more goals have been scored in 45% of the matches and the probability of this happening is higher if the home team is above 9th position and the difference to the away team is not more than 5 places.
